What changed
$MTN — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: MED
🎯 FQ3 FY2026 (ends Apr) | reported Jun 08 | Rev $1.2B | EPS $8.81 vs $9.05 🔴 | Margin 41.0%
💡 Consensus expected $9.05 EPS but results came in at $8.81, indicating softening demand. The market may be pricing in a swift recovery that is uncertain given elevated debt and sensitivity to ski conditions.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10
📊 Valuation: fair
🔮 Catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings release (expected September 2026)
⚖️ Avoid: Vail Resorts appears fairly valued at ~14x TTM earnings with high debt and no clear near-term catalyst; risk/reward below 2:1 for a long position.