What changed
$MRVL — Designs and manufactures semiconductors and infrastructure solutions.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $2B | EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 🟢
💡 Consensus expects continued acceleration from AI custom silicon (ASIC) wins, but Q1 FY27 revenue of $2.418B only beat guidance midpoint by $18M (0.7%), and net income collapsed to $34.5M from $177.9M a year ago.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: rich
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 15% to $295 (if AI ASIC ramp accelerates margins) vs. downside 30% to $180 (if margins disappoint). Ratio: 0.5x, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Next earnings (late Aug 2026): Q2 FY27 guidance and margin commentary. Key metric: non-GAAP gross margin (currently ~62-63% vs. historical 65%+). Failure signal: guide below $3.0B revenue or gross margin below 60%.
💰 Entry: Current price $256 is not attractive. Fair value range $180-$220 based on 35-40x FY28 EPS of ~$5.50. Wait for pullback to $200-$210.