What changed
$MRVL — SELL 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: HIGH
🎯 FQ1 FY2027 (ends Apr) | reported May 27 | Rev $2.4B | EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 🟢 | Margin 14.0%
💡 Consensus seems to accept high multiples based on a 'good company' narrative (semiconductor/tech), ignoring the extremely thin profitability and high R&D intensity. My variant view: the market is overestimating sustainable earnings power; even a modest disappointment will trigger a severe multiple compression to the peer range median of ~18.7x,...
📉 Reward/risk: 4.6:1
🏢 Business Quality: 5/10
📊 Valuation: rich — trailing P/E 83x vs peer bull range 46.2x, FCF yield 0.2%, DCF implies -2.2% FCF growth.
🔮 Catalyst: No specific near-term catalyst; general sector sentiment or earnings cycle.
💰 Entry: $266.77, stop $300.0, target $115.45
⚖️ Sell: at 83x earnings with a razor-thin net margin and negative risk/reward, MRVL is a classic 'good company, bad stock' — exit before the multiple normalizes.