$MPC — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS

$MPC — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS 🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $34.6B | EPS $1.65 vs $0.75 🟢 | Margin 4.1% 💡 Consensus expectations after the beat may have been revised upward, but the stock’s poor quant ranking suggests that either earnings revisions are insufficient to improve forward valuation or momentum has turned negative. Our variant view is that refining margins are peaking and the stock will underperform as the cycle turns. 📉 Reward/risk: 0.9:1 🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 - Leading integrated downstream operator with strong midstream earnings (via MPLX) and share buybacks, but highly cyclical and exposed to commodity spreads. 📊 Valuation: rich — At 17.5x trailing PE, MPC trades above typical refining comps (often 8-12x); EV/EBITDA likely also elevated given current margin capture. 📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis → https://stockduty.xyz/s/MPC0623

🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $34.6B | EPS $1.65 vs $0.75 🟢 | Margin 4.1%