What changed
$MPC — HOLD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $34.6B | EPS $1.65 vs $0.75 🟢 | Margin 4.1%
💡 Consensus Q1 EPS estimate of $0.75 was far below actual $1.65, but post-earnings, analysts will raise full-year estimates. The market appears to have already discounted a higher earnings run-rate, as the stock's P/E of 17.5x on trailing earnings is in line with historical medians, and forward multiples may contract as estimates rise.
📉 Reward/risk: 3.4:1
🏢 Business Quality: 6/10 - MPC is a leading US refiner with integrated assets, but the business is inherently cyclical and earnings depend on volatile refining margins.
📊 Valuation: fair - At 17.5x trailing P/E, MPC trades near its historical median. On forward estimates (assuming full-year EPS revised to $16-17), the P/E...
📊 Our read: HOLD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/MPC0618