What changed
$MDLZ — ADD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $10.1B | EPS $0.67 vs $0.61 🟢 | Margin 11.4%
💡 Market focuses on trailing P/E of 31.7x, treating it as expensive, but forward EPS on 2026 estimates implies 22.5x P/E, which is reasonable. The Q1 beat suggests consensus estimates for FY26 are too low, and upward revisions will re-rate the stock.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.45:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - Mondelez owns dominant global snack brands, high margins (~30% FCF margin), and pricing power, making it a resilient compounder.
📊 Valuation: fair - forward P/E ~22.5x, EV/EBITDA likely ~16-18x (in line with peers), FCF yield 3.8%.
🔮 Catalyst: Analyst estimate revisions upward for FY2026 and FY2027 following Q1 beat, likely over the next 4-6 weeks.
💰 Entry: $60.25, stop $57.5, target $67.0
📊 Our read: ADD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/MDLZ0618