What changed
$MCK โ AVOID ๐ | 6 MONTHS THESIS
๐ฏ Q1 2026 | Rev $96.3B | EPS $11.69 vs $11.57 ๐ข
๐ก Consensus views the stock as steady, but the market may be overestimating pricing power and underestimating competitive and regulatory risks. The 1% EPS beat does not change the low-growth trajectory, and the stockโs slight discount to its own historical PE is offset by a premium to more reasonably valued peers.
๐ Reward/risk: 0.78:1
๐ข Business Quality: 7 โ Dominant pharmaceutical distributor with essential scale and steady cash flows, but thin margins, opioid litigation overhang, and potential disintermediation limit quality./10
๐ Valuation: fair โ PE 19.6x (slightly below 5-year median 20.1x but above peers like CAH at ~17x and ABC at ~16x); EV/EBITDA ~13x; FCF yield ~4-5%.
๐ฎ Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings release and guidance update
๐ Our read: AVOID. Full analysis โ
https://stockduty.xyz/s/MCK0623