What changed
$LRCX — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $5.8B | EPS $1.47 vs $1.36 🟢 | Margin 35.0%
💡 Consensus expects ~20% revenue growth and EPS expansion, but the current P/E of 60.3x vs. a historical median of ~20x and a peer band of 9.7-20x implies extreme optimism. The reverse DCF indicates the market is pricing in -1.6% FCF growth, meaning even moderate growth disappoints.
📉 Reward/risk: 0.7:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Dominant semiconductor equipment player with gross margins near 50%, operating margins 35%, and strong cash generation; critical to advanced chipmaking, but cyclical end-market exposure limits full marks.
📊 Valuation: rich — P/E 60.3x (trailing) vs. historical 60.3x (50th percentile of a very narrow recent range), peer band 9.7x-20x-47.2x; EV/EBITDA not shown but...
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/LRCX0612