What changed
$JBL — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: HIGH
Jabil Inc. provides engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain solutions worldwide.
🎯 FQ3 FY2026 (ends May) | reported Jun 16 | Rev $8.3B | EPS $3.16 vs $3.10 🟢 | Margin 5.3%
💡 Consensus appears overly optimistic as the small earnings beat and guidance uplift are already priced in. The market expects continued growth and margin expansion, but execution risks and cyclicality are underappreciated.
🏢 Business Quality: 5/10
📊 Valuation: rich — trailing P/E 29.2x vs sector peers typically trading 10-15x; forward P/E based on Q4 guidance of $3.00 annualized is ~30.8x; DCF would require...
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings (Q4 FY2026, approx Sep 2026)
⚖️ Avoid JBL at $369.6 — valuation at 29x trailing earnings is too rich for a low-margin EMS provider, and the $12 EPS annualized run-rate doesn't justify the price; wait for a pullback to <$200 or a significant margin improvement story before considering long exposure.
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