What changed
$HTHT — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $3.7B | EPS $3.36 vs $3.89 🔴
💡 Consensus expects RevPAR growth of ~2-3% and modest margin recovery, but we believe pent-up demand and government stimulus will push RevPAR growth to 5%+ and improve operating leverage, leading to EPS upgrades.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.22:1
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 - Dominant franchise model with strong brand recognition, but asset-heavy legacy and sensitivity to China macro cycles.
📊 Valuation: fair - Trading at 54x FY25 P/E vs. 5yr avg 60x, 43x FY26 P/E; EV/EBITDA ~12x, in line with global peers but below its historical premium.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2025 earnings report (expected August 2025) showing strong RevPAR growth and margin improvement
💰 Entry: $44.66, stop $40, target $55
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/HTHT0615