What changed
$FDX — WATCHLIST 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: MED
🎯 FQ4 FY2027 (ends May) | reported Jun 23 | Rev $24.0B | EPS $6.31 vs $5.91 🟢 | Margin 6.6%
💡 Consensus likely expects moderate growth and margin improvement; but current EV/EBITDA suggests market already prices a recovery. Without a structural catalyst, upside unclear.
🏢 Business Quality: 6 — Global logistics leader with cyclical exposure and thin operating margins./10
📊 Valuation: Conflicting — P/E 12.6x appears cheap relative to sector median 21x, but EV/EBITDA of 34.5x is rich.
🔮 Catalyst: Next earnings report or cost-saving initiatives
⚖️ Watchlist: FDX's valuation is ambiguous — P/E cheap but EV/EBITDA expensive. Wait for clearer evidence of margin improvement or a lower entry price.