What changed
$EQIX — Operates data centers and interconnection services.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $2B | EPS $4.17 vs $4.33 🔴 | Margin 23.6%
💡 Consensus expects a steady recovery in data center leasing and AFFO growth driven by AI demand. However, Q1 2026 EPS missed by 3.8% despite 9.8% revenue growth, and FCF was deeply negative (-$539M) due to a 67% capex surge.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% (to $1,150 on AFFO beat and FCF improvement) vs. downside 15% (to $890 on continued cash burn and multiple compression). Ratio: 0.67x.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July 2026): watch AFFO per share vs. consensus $4.34 and FCF trajectory. Failure signal: AFFO miss or further FCF deterioration.
💰 Entry: Current price $1,044 is not attractive. Ideal entry near $950-980, a 6-9% discount, where the stock would price in a more conservative AFFO multiple of ~22x vs.
Also in play: $DLR $REXR $CONE $QTS $COR $NVT