What changed
$DIS — Creates entertainment, theme parks, and media content.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $25B | EPS $1.57 vs $1.50 🟢
💡 Consensus expects continued linear declines and streaming losses. The Q2 beat (EPS $1.57 vs $1.495) shows streaming profitability is real, but net income fell 31% YoY due to higher costs. The market is too pessimistic on DTC margins but too optimistic on linear recovery. The gap is narrow and already partially priced.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $111 (18x FY27 EPS of $6.15) vs downside 15% to $84 (14x FY27 EPS). Ratio: 0.8:1, unfavorable for a long.
🔮 Catalyst: Q3 FY2026 earnings (Aug 2026). Key metric: DTC operating income vs consensus ~$0.5B. Failure signal: DTC losses widen or parks revenue decelerates below +5% YoY.
💰 Entry: Current $99.33 is near the lower end of the 12-month range ($85-$120).
Also in play: $CMCSA $NFLX $WBD $PARA $FOXA $AAPL