What changed
$DE — Measures distance between two points.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $10B | EPS $6.55 vs $5.74 🟢
💡 Consensus expects FY2026 EPS of ~$18.10, implying net income ~$4.9B at the high end of Deere's own $4.5-$5.0B guidance. The market is pricing in a recovery in farm equipment demand that may not materialize given ongoing ag recession, high input costs, and trade uncertainty.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: upside 10% to $640 (if recovery priced in) vs downside 25% to $440 (if recession deepens). Ratio 0.4:1, unfavorable at current price.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 FY2026 earnings (late Aug 2026): watch for equipment sales volumes and order backlog. Metric: Large ag equipment sales growth vs prior year. Failure signal: negative growth or further margin compression.
💰 Entry: Current price $583 is not attractive. Ideal entry $450-$480 (12-13x trough EPS of ~$17).
Also in play: $ETR $VZ $TEF $NOK $ERIC $CSCO