What changed
$CNI — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $2.6B | EPS $1.80 vs $1.81 🔴
💡 Consensus expects steady growth to sustain premium valuation, as evidenced by P/E at 100th percentile. Our variant view is that the EPS miss signals softening fundamentals and will lead to downward estimate revisions, triggering reversion toward historical median P/E and modest price decline.
📉 Reward/risk: 0.1:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - CNI is a top-tier railroad with a wide moat, pricing power, and secular volume trends, but cyclical exposure tempers perfection.
📊 Valuation: rich - trailing P/E 22.1x is at the top of its 5-year range (17.7–22.1) and above median 20.1x; EV/EBITDA and FCF yield similarly stretched.
🔮 Catalyst: Analyst estimate revisions following Q1 EPS miss
💰 Entry: $114.9, stop $106.3, target $125.17
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/CNI0624