What changed
$CMCSA — Cable, internet, media, and entertainment conglomerate.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $31B | EPS $0.79 vs $0.73 🟢 | Margin 13.1%
💡 Consensus expects continued broadband erosion and margin compression from content costs. I think the broadband losses are stabilizing faster than feared, and the wireless pivot is gaining traction, but the 30% net income drop is real and not fully discounted. The market is too pessimistic on the core business but too optimistic on a quick recovery.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% to $26.5 (8x forward EBITDA) vs downside 15% to $20.4 (6x forward EBITDA). Ratio 0.67:1, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July): watch broadband net adds and wireless ARPU. Failure signal: broadband losses >100k or wireless ARPU decline >5%.
💰 Entry: Current price $24 is near the lower end of the 12-month range.
Also in play: $T $VZ $CHTR $DIS $NFLX $CMCSA