What changed
$CEG — Generates and sells electricity and natural gas.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $11B | EPS $2.74 vs $2.60 🟢 | Margin 21.0%
💡 Consensus expects steady utility-like earnings growth from CEG's nuclear fleet. The Q1 beat (5.3% vs est) and raised FY guidance ($11.00-$12.00) suggest stronger operational leverage, but the market may be underestimating the negative free cash flow (-$850M) and the massive capex required for new nuclear/upgrades.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: rich
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 15% to $280 (if FCF turns positive and multiple holds) vs downside 25% to $180 (if FCF stays negative and multiple contracts). Ratio: 0.6x, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly report (Aug 2026) with focus on FCF improvement and capex guidance. Metric to watch: operating cash flow minus capex. Failure signal: FCF remains deeply negative or guidance is cut.
Also in play: $CNP $AEE $DTE $CMS $LNT $GE