What changed
$CARR — AVOID 📊
Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $5B | EPS $0.57 vs $0.51 🟢 | Margin 12.1%
💡 The market appears to be pricing a cyclical recovery, but actual underlying results show GAAP EPS down 40% YoY, operating margins contracting from 17% to 12%, and negative FCF. Consensus likely underestimates how long the pain will last, while the valuation is at an extreme that discounts perpetual improvement not yet in sight.
📉 Reward/Risk: 0.0:1
🏢 Business Quality: 6/10 - Strong global HVAC franchise with installed base-driven aftermarket, but cyclical end-markets, rising competitive intensity, high fixed costs, and recent operational mis-execution.
Also in play: $GTLS $WAB $CAT $PCAR $CMI $NSC
Why it matters
Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.