What changed
$BX — Acquires and manages alternative assets globally.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $4B | EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 🟢
💡 Consensus expects steady fee-related earnings growth but underestimates the drag from lower realizations and elevated interest costs. The market is pricing in a smooth recovery in asset monetizations, but Q1 2026 operating cash flow declined 11% YoY despite a 10% revenue increase, suggesting realized performance fees are not yet materializing.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% to $130 (consensus target) vs downside 15% to $100 (if realizations disappoint). Ratio: 0.67x, unfavorable at current price.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July 2026): watch for realized performance fees and inflows. Key metric: distributable earnings per share. Failure signal: inflows below $50B or negative appreciation in flagship funds.
Also in play: $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $RIOT $MARA