What changed
$BX — AVOID 📊
Blackstone Inc.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $4B | EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 🟢
💡 Consensus appears to price in perpetual strong growth and premium valuation, while the market-implied expectations ignore the cyclicality of fee income, the small earnings beat magnitude, and declining operating cash flow; our variant view is that mean reversion to peer multiples is likely, driving downside.
📉 Reward/Risk: 0.5:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - dominant franchise with scale, diversified strategies, strong fundraising, but earnings highly sensitive to market conditions and incentive fees.
📊 Valuation: rich — P/E 30.4x vs peer band 8.5-21.8x, FCF yield <1%, embedded DCF requires aggressive growth; relative to history it is at the 6th percentile of...
🔮 Catalyst: None imminent; recent EPS beat was modest and not transformative.
Also in play: $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $RIOT $MARA