What changed
$ASML — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $4.1B | EPS $7.15 vs $6.62 🟢
💡 Consensus models underestimate the depth of memory and foundry EUV demand, assuming a cyclical slowdown. Our variant view sees a multi-year capacity build-out that will push revenue and EPS 15-20% above street estimates by FY25, triggering positive estimate revisions and multiple re-rating.
📉 Reward/risk: 3.0:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Monopoly in EUV, high switching costs, razor/blade model with recurring service, and durable secular tailwind from semiconductor complexity.
📊 Valuation: fair - On 2025E EPS of $38, P/E 55x is at the high end of historical range, but a reverse DCF implies 15% FCF CAGR needed vs our 20%+ estimate,...
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/ASML0618