What changed
$APO — Manages alternative assets and provides investment solutions.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $5B | EPS $1.94 vs $1.88 🟢
💡 Consensus expects continued strong AUM growth and fee income, but the market may be underestimating the drag from net realized losses in the principal investing segment (net income -$1.93B vs +$0.42B YoY) and the impact of higher interest expenses. The EPS beat was only 2.9%, and the net income swing is a red flag that the market may be ignoring.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% to $140 (based on 17x forward adjusted EPS of ~$8.20) vs downside 15% to $108 (if AUM growth disappoints or losses persist). Ratio: 0.67x, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings (late July 2026) with focus on AUM growth, fee-related earnings, and net realized gains/losses. Key metric: fee-related earnings growth >15% YoY.
Also in play: $DELL $HPE $SMCI $IBM $HPQ $NVDA