What changed
$AMGN — Biotech firm developing innovative human therapeutics.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $9B | EPS $5.15 vs $4.77 🟢 | Margin 30.9%
💡 Consensus expected Q1 2026 EPS of $4.77, but Amgen delivered $5.15 (+8% beat). The market is pricing in pessimism around LOE for Enbrel and biosimilar competition, but the beat shows underlying strength from new products (Repatha, Tezspire) and cost discipline.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 15% to $388 (15x forward EPS of $25.85) vs downside 10% to $304 (12x forward EPS). Ratio: 1.5:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Upcoming FDA decisions on new drug applications (e.g., AMG 133 for obesity) and Q2 earnings in late July. Watch for revenue growth from Tezspire and Repatha. Failure signal: if Q2 revenue misses consensus or guidance is cut.
💰 Entry: Current price $337.73 is attractive within a range of $320-$340. Ideal entry below $330.
Also in play: $GILD $BIIB $REGN $VRTX $JNJ $CTLT