What changed
$AJG — Provides insurance brokerage and risk management services.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $5B | EPS $4.47 vs $4.43 🟢
💡 Consensus expects continued steady growth from AJG's insurance brokerage and consulting segments, but the market may be underestimating the impact of a slowing economy on premium growth and consulting demand. The 0.98% EPS beat is marginal and likely already priced in.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 8% to $235 (23x FY26 EPS of ~$10.20) vs downside 12% to $190 (19x). Ratio 0.67:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings (late July 2026) – watch organic revenue growth and EBITDAC margins. Failure signal: organic growth <4% or margin compression >50bps.
💰 Entry: Current price $217 is near fair value. Attractive entry below $200 (20x forward EPS).
Also in play: $CB $MCO $MMC $AON $BRO