OCT 27: Russia-Ukraine local ceasefire starts as Kyiv strikes continue; Microsoft $MSFT 1Q AI capex is the next market datapoint; Nvidia $NVDA to invest $3B in Meta $META equity offering. Saudi Arabia offered Houthis $1B in an Iran-brokered ceasefire deal, Israeli media says, while the Saudi coalition destroyed 3 Houthi missiles and 4 drones. Separately, an EU loan to Airbus $AIR threatens the US trade truce, a Trump trade official warns. Hilton $HLT beat Q3 estimates; American Tower $AMT raised its 2026 data center revenue growth outlook to 16% and targets 200 to 300 bps of tower margin expansion. Good signal for travel and data-center demand. Millrose guides Q4 AFFO to $0.82-$0.84 and launches a $250M buyback while reviewing its build-to-rent pilot. The buyback is the signal; the pilot review is the risk. Microsoft $MSFT 1Q is the next AI datapoint: revenue expected higher with AI growth cited as the driver, and capex in focus. If capex jumps again, the market will ask who pays for it. Anthropic warns TSMC $TSM disruptions could hit AI chip supply and threaten business. Not sure people appreciate how concentrated the AI supply chain still is. US consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months, beating forecasts. Prediction markets put 71% on the Fed upper bound above 3.75% after Mar 2027 and just 6.5% on CPI above 4.5% for Nov 2026. Sensex and Nifty extended gains even with oil hovering near $115/barrel. That is a brave tape. If crude stays here, India margins and inflation get squeezed. US agency is again probing whether Polymarket broke its 2022 settlement, per Reuters. Prediction markets are growing faster than the rulebook; this is the regulatory overhang to watch. What it adds up to: ceasefires are local, not global; AI capex and chip supply are the real earnings swing factors; and $115 oil plus regulatory probes keep tail risk alive into week-end.